Bryant Capital Advisors Q3 2026
Quarterly newsletter
Raleigh-Durham
Industrial · Flex · Retail
Capital is moving faster than tenants.
RDU Industrial/Flex sold nearly $1.4B over the past four quarters, more than two times its 10-year average, while leasing is still absorbing the 2024–26 supply wave. Retail is moving the opposite way. Here is our read for middle-market owners and investors.
The quarter in four numbers
~$1.4B
RDU industrial/flex sales
12-month total.
+6.8%
Industrial/flex values, YoY
Pricing has held through the supply wave.
10.3%
Durham industrial/flex vacancy
Up from 5.9% two years ago.
2.6%
Raleigh retail vacancy
About 90% of new retail is pre-leased.
Raleigh industrial/flex vacancy
Vacancy is in mid-size buildings
Our read
Big-box space is nearly full, but more than 60% of the pipeline is mid-size. Older 100–500K SF buildings are where tenants can negotiate, and where buyers can get in at a good basis.
Source: CoStar, 10/1/2026
Vacancy by segment
Retail is moving the opposite way
Our read
Industrial and flex owners are competing for tenants as new supply leases up, so expect more concessions at renewal. Retail owners hold the leverage, with over 90% of new space pre-leased and little else coming.
Source: CoStar, 10/1/2026 · Industrial includes flex
Our view
What this means for our clients.
If you’re selling
The window is open.
Well-leased industrial/flex is pricing at 6.25–6.75% caps. Sellers don’t need to wait for vacancy to peak to get paid.
If you’re buying
Look in the middle.
The vacancy, and the leverage, is in mid-size buildings and Durham logistics. Johnston County is where much of the new demand is going.
If you own retail
Hold the leverage.
With almost no new supply, owners are in a strong position at renewal. In Durham, price off closed comps, not the index.
“The long-term case for the Triangle is strong. Today, deals are won or lost on building size, submarket and vintage, not the market averages.”
Read the full Raleigh‑Durham report.
Download the in-depth report
Source: CoStar Raleigh & Durham Market Reports, 10/1/2026. Not investment advice.
